System Reliability Modeling Datasets 2024

This page lists system reliability modeling datasets used by Energy Division to model the CAISO balancing area electric system along with the rest of California and neighboring regions of the WECC. This modeling supports the Resource Adequacy (RA) and Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) proceedings, as well as the Aliso Canyon Investigation and the Avoided Cost Calculator. The prior version of this webpage is here: System Reliability Modeling Datasets 2023.

All data were exported from the “Strategic Energy & Risk Valuation Model” (SERVM), a probabilistic system reliability and production cost model developed by Astrapé Consulting. In the first half of 2024, Energy Division performed a major input update of SERVM. The RA proceeding’s (R.23-10-011) July 2024 Loss of Load Expectation (LOLE) study of target year 2026 is the first use case of this major input update. The IRP proceeding’s (R.20-05-003) 2024-2026 Cycle will also use this input update for modeling to be conducted later in 2024.

In Q4 of 2024, Energy Division further updated certain inputs for use in the IRP proceeding's (R.20-05-003) 2024-2026 Cycle.  Staff included these updates with the modeling of the portfolios intended for study in the CAISO's 2025-2026 Transmission Planning Process (TPP).

Electricity Consumption, Managed, and Demand Modifier Profiles

The following files contain hourly system electricity consumption and managed demand profiles (in MW) for all regions modeled, including any demand modifiers, for the key future years modeled: 2026, 2030, 2035, and 2040. Weather-dependent profiles are provided for weather years 2000-2022. Median annual energy and peak demand for all California regions are based on the 2023 IEPR California Energy Demand Forecast, 2023-2040. Median annual energy and peak demand for non-California regions are derived from the WECC Anchor Data Set 2032, publicly available IRPs from non-California LSEs, the 2023 vintage of FERC Form 714, and EIA Form 861M (Net Metering data for BTMPV extrapolation from historical).

DataDictionary_HourlyLoadComponents_20250107

HourlyLoadComponents_AllRegions_2026

HourlyLoadComponents_AllRegions_2030

HourlyLoadComponents_AllRegions_2035

HourlyLoad Components_AllRegions_2040_CHPPhaseout (2040 was modeled with an assumption of completely phased out BTM CHP.  Demand that would have been met with BTM CHP is assumed to persist.) 

Generating Units

The following files lists the generating and storage units modeled in SERVM for various use cases.  The Baseline Generator List of resources modeled in SERVM consists of online and In-Development resources, consistent with the definition used in the IRP proceeding. Online resource data was drawn from the CAISO Master Generating Capability Lists as of January 2024. In-Development resource data was drawn from LSE IRP Filings and LSE MTR Procurement Order Filings as of December 1, 2023. Non-CAISO resource data was drawn from the WECC Anchor Data Set 2032 and publicly available IRPs from Non-CAISO LSEs.  The Baseline Generator List file, November 2024 vintage, also includes a list of additional units modeled in regions external to CAISO on top of the Baseline.  These units were added to external regions in 2030, 2035, 2040, and 2045 to ensure reasonable load and resource balance, to the extent that the Baseline resource build assumptions appeared short.

TPP25-26_Base_and_Busbarmapped_20241212 (used for Jan 2025 IRP Proposed Decision on CAISO 2025-2026 TPP portfolios)

BaselineGeneratorList_ExternalBuildCalibration_v20241125 (used for Jan 2025 IRP Proposed Decision on CAISO 2025-2026 TPP portfolios

BaselineGeneratorList_v20240814 (used for July 2024 RA study of 2026)

SERVM-specific Hydroelectric Input Variables

The following file contains SERVM-specific input variables defining hydro unit inputs. It can be used to develop hydro unit inputs for other production cost models. The inputs were developed from 23 years (2000-2022) of monthly data from the EIA and 4 years of hourly data from the CAISO, BPAT, and EIA (2019-2022). The source data was translated into monthly generation, daily minimum, average, and maximum generation, and monthly maximum output parameters. SERVM schedules the hydro according to the net load conditions of a given scenario (a particular weather year and a particular hydro year, which are not necessarily the same historical year).

ServmHydroVariables_HY2000-2022_20250107

For the modeling that staff conducted to support the January 2025 IRP Proposed Decision on CAISO 2025-2026 TPP portfolios, the specific hydro profiles for selected wet (2006, 2011) and dry (2001, 2015) hydro years paired with weather years 2021 (moderate) and 2022 (extreme) are provided for convenience here.  SERVM models a more comprehensive distribution representing all combinations of weather and hydro condition from 2000-2022.

HydroProfilesWetDryYearsAnd2021-2022Weather

RenewableProfiles_WY2000-2022_California_2026

RenewableProfiles_WY2000-2022_NonCalifornia_2026

The above files represent the year 2026 with Baseline units only.  The files below contain profiles sized according to the total installed capacity in the modeling staff conducted to support the January 2025 IRP Proposed Decision on CAISO 2025-2026 TPP portfolios - in other words the Baseline plus the External Build Calibration plus the TPP25-26 Base new build or busbar-mapped new build capacity, for years 2026, 2030, 2035, and 2040.

TPP25-26_BASE_Initial_2026_RenProfiles

TPP25-26_BASE_ExtBidCal_2030_RenProfiles

TPP25-26_BusbarMapShiftToPgeSdge_ExtBidCal_2035_RenProfiles

TPP25-26_BusbarMapShiftToPgeSdge_ExtBidCal_2040_RenProfiles

Normalized Renewable Generation Profiles

The (large) zip file below contains NORMALIZED renewable generation hourly production profiles for all regions modeled, for weather years 2000-2022. It can be used to develop profiles for other production cost models. Normalized profiles need to be mapped to a particular unit using the “weather station” variable. Then, that particular unit’s installed capacity and other technology attributes determine the final magnitude and shape of the production profile modeled in SERVM. The Baseline Generator List above includes the weather station and the installed capacity of each renewables unit to match with a normalized profile to create the final production profile corresponding to that unit that is modeled in SERVM. The zip file below includes a README describing the contents and steps to derive final production profiles from normalized profiles.

NormalizedSolarWindProfiles_WY2000-2022_V2024

Representation of the CAISO Transmission System and Neighbors

The following file specifies the regions, transfer limits (MW), and hurdles (2022 $) that are modeled in SERVM. Descriptive details are in the file.

RegionTransferLimitsAndHurdles_2024Jun

Burner-Tip Fuel and Carbon Prices

The following files specify the monthly fuel and transport prices and annual GHG prices, all in 2022 $, used in SERVM.  A generating unit's fuel price plus transport cost represents the burner-tip for that unit.

FuelAndTransportCosts_20250108_values

GHGPriceProjection2022IEPR: Units are 2022 $ per short ton and derived from CED 2022 GHG Allowance Price Scenarios. A more recent version of source data, CED 2023 GHG Allowance Price Scenarios, is available but not yet incorporated into SERVM.